In their first fight, Junior Dos Santos scored a first round knockout win over Cain Velasquez to win the UFC Heavyweight title. In their second fight, that picture up above shows what a five round revenge beating looks like, as Cain took the title back from JDS. Who will win the third fight you ask? That’s what Nathan Litz, Quinn Omori and myself are here to tell you (or guess. Sometimes we guess really really well.)
Cain Velasquez VS Juior Dos Santos
Winner: Cain Velasquez
Why: As much as I’d like to see Cigano pull off that knockout again, I feel like the final installment of this trilogy will be more ‘Matrix Revolutions’ (first movie was great, second movie was really long and painful to watch, third movie also long and arduous without a satisfying conclusion) than ‘Die Hard: With a Vengeance’ (again first was great, “Yippie Kay-aye, Mister Falcon” in the second, and then the third brought the series back to the prominence it deserved) . Let’s just hope it isn’t like the Godfather trilogy, I don’t want to see Anthony Pettis having a love affair with his first cousin during the bloated finale… This analogy may have gone a little sideways, but basically JDS is John McClane, and Cain is Neo. Neo’s superior skillset (endless cardio, good boxing, calm demeanor devoid of charisma) will best John McClane’s stubbornness and receding hairline probably eight times out of ten.
How: Unanimous Decision
When: 5:00 of the 5th round
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 8/10
Winner: JDS
Why: Logic would dictate that this one goes exactly like the last one, with Valesquez using his wrestling and the threat of takedowns to neutralize dos Santos’ boxing and set up his own striking. But, you know, sometimes you have to go with your gut. And while it might be the beer amd junk food in there talking, my gut says that sometimes lightning can strike twice. I’ll take Cigano by KO.
How: KO
When: 1:10 of Round 1
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 8/10
Winner: Cain Velasquez
Why: In their first fight JDS got a punchers knock out, which can be considered a lucky punch by some. I know JDS has top level MMA striking skills, and that he excels at knocking people out, so I don’t want to take anything away from his first fight, it’s just in the second fight Cain made JDS look like he didn’t belong in the same cage with him. Cain has stronger cardio, Cain can take it to the ground if he wants, and he was able to out box JDS for five straight rounds in their second fight. Seriously, did you look at JDS face up there?? Cain mashed it like it was potatoes!
OK, that metaphor was awful (I should have gone with the Die Hard metaphor like Nathan, damn it), but the fact remains, Cain takes this fight, he is the better fighter.
How: TKO
When: 3rd round, let’s say 1:52
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 8/10
Daniel Cormier VS Roy Nelson
Winner: Daniel Cormier
Why: Roy Nelson has a habit of losing, often spectacularly, to elite competition. Cormier has the best wrestling in the heavyweight division and is a surprisingly effective striker with power to spare. That makes him elite. That means Roy Nelson is about to catch a beating. Neither man has a large gas tank, despite the extra room for gas in their bellies, so I expect the two men to slow as the fight goes on, with Nelson dropping his hands and Cormier landing some big punches standing then from the top. He’ll probably break at least one of his hands so he’ll switch to submission attempts and lock in the RNC.
How: Rear Naked Choke
When: 2:18 of the 3rd round
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 8/10
Winner: Daniel Cormier
Why: Nelson’s only conceivable path to victory is the lightning he packs when he wings an overhand right. Roy’s also got a stronger submission game, but Cormier’s wrestling pedigree is elite and he’s translated that to MMA extremely well, where he uses it to bully opponents against the fence while firing off some nasty punches inside. Nelson’s chin is as strong as his appetite (though he is looking a bit svelte, or at least svelte for Roy Nelson for this fight), so I can’t see Cormier turning his lights out, but he should grind out a decision victory pretty easily.
How: UD
When: 5:00 of round 3
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 6/10
Winner: Daniel Cormier
Why: Grind. Grind. Grind. That is what this fight is going to be. Except it won’t be the exciting lower weight class grinding kind of fight, it will be two large men heaving and huffing and puffing as they both try and gut out the fight. You know the kind of fight I mean, the kind of fight where both men start throwing punches like they’re in slow motion and eventually one man sloppily takes the other one down in what can only be described as “Drunken frat boy” technique. Cormer is an elite wrestler and I think he will control Roy Neslon up against the cage all day long. Shockingly Nelson will sit back and try and wing out a homerun right hand, but this will not work.
How: Unanimous Decision
When: 3rd round, 5 minutes
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 5/10
Gilbert Melendez vs Diego Sanchez
Winner: Gilbert Melendez
Why: These guys are just going to go. I picture this looking like one of those cartoon fight clouds with random limbs sticking out. They’ll fight standing, on the ground, using the corner stools, they are going to be scrapping every which way but loose. Sadly, I don’t think we’re really going to see who’s the better man between the two in a three round fight. I see Gil pulling out the decision by the skin of his teeth and a 5 round rematch in their future. Really looking forward to this one.
How: Split Decision
When: 5:00 of the 3rd round
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 9/10
Who: Gilbert Melendez
Why: Over the last 5-years Gil’s been one of the lightweight division’s best, with his only unavenged loss coming by way of split decision against former champ, Benson Henderson. Diego’s been in some exciting fights, but hasn’t been the same since he was decimated by BJ Penn and his last win came after missing weight for a contest that almost everyone but two of the judges scored for his opponent, Takanori Gomi. Diego’s strengths–wrestling and his cardio–are also two areas where Melendez excels. It’ll probably go to decision, but El Niño takes this.
How: UD
When: 5:00 of round 3
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 7/10
Winner: Gilbert Melendez
Why: Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez used to be a terror in the octagon until BJ Penn stole his soul and ate it, which ended up with Diego losing for a while before changing his nickname to Diego “The Dream” Sanchez. So not only do I think he will lose this fight, due to the fact Melendez is basically Diego, but better, but I also want him to lose this fight because that is a horrible nickname transition. This will be a close fight, but I think Melendez murders Diego with…. the third unanimous decision in a row I am predicting. Son of a ….
The good news is I do appreciate Diego for bringing “YES!” into this world, which Daniel Bryan of WWE fame happily stole and made better.
How: UD
When: 3rd round, 5 minutes
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 9/10
Shawn Jordan VS Gabe Gonzaga
Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga
Why: What is this doing on the main card? I’d literally rather see any of the prelim fights here instead of this matchup of two guys that are not good enough to be gatekeepers in the shallowest division in the UFC. Jordan will look to keep it standing so he can gas out throwing sloppy kickboxing techniques with all of his power loaded into each attempt. Gonzaga will get hit with a couple of those and shoot in on Jordan, who isn’t worth a damn off his back. Big Gabe will grab onto something and twist it or somesuch, making that other guy tap out and never show up on PPV again.
How: Kimura
When: 4:12 of the 3rd round
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 6/10
Winner: Shawn Jordan
Why: Gonzaga undoubtedly has the better grappling in this match up. And while Jordan’s never been submitted, Napão’s got the chops to be the first guy to make Shawn tap if he can drag the fight to the ground. The problem for Gonzaga is that he’s shown a frequent willingness to keep a fight standing instead of even trying to get it to the ground where he can show off his world class jiu jitsu game. And while he has shown knockout power, the bigger problem for Gonzaga is that keeping the fight standing has led to him being put to sleep in six of his seven career losses. Unless Gonzaga’s been working on his wrestling and learned how to stick to a grappling game plan, look for Jordan to add to his 11 career T/KO wins.
How: TKO
When: 2:24 of round 2
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 8/10
Winner: Gabe Gonzaga
Why: I actually think Shawn is going to win this one, I just really really like watching Gabe fight because he either knocks someone out, gets knocked out, or randomly decides to utilize his sub skills. Also when Gabe wins he runs around looking like a crazed Orangutan on cocaine, which always amuses me. He also likes to jump into walls for no reason:
To top it off, he didn’t knock out my MMA hero Randy Couture as he was polite enough to lose to the Natural, which I always appreciate. Add it all up and I have no idea how you can’t love this guy.
That being said, Gonzaga, who has very good submission skills and used those to win three fights in a row, has gone back to his punching ways (Jorge Gurgel disease I believe it is called, when you completely ignore your far better ground game in order to stand and bang and lose fights) and will most likely get knocked out. Still, the heart wants what the heart wants, so go Gonzaga!
How: When in doubt, Rear Naked Choke.
When: 3:28 of the first round
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 10/10
John Dodson VS Darrell Montague
Winner: John Dodson
Why: ufc.com doesn’t even have a picture of Darrell Montague. I’m not going to pretend I’ve been bootlegging Tachi Palace Fights and keeping tabs on the guy, I have no idea who he is and I’ve only heard of one dude that he’s beat and I think that’s just because I like the name ‘Ulysses Gomez’. Dodson on the other hand gave Demitrious Johnson a run for his money in a Championship fight earlier this year, and is basically impossible to take down while also possessing the heaviest hands at 125. So when it’s one of the best versus an unknown quantity, I’ll put my money on the guy that I know is not a bum. I’ll give Montague some credit though, let’s pretend I know he’s tough so he takes Dodson to a decision. Yeah, that’s pretty probable, I’ll go with that.
How: Decision
When: 5:00 of the 5th round
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 7/10
Winner: Dodson
Why: Unlike that slacker Nathan, I actually do pirate old Tachi Palace Fights matches, sometimes during work hours when I presume he’s busy “being a good employee,” so I have seen Montague in action before. But like Nathan, I recognize that John Dodson’s got excellent wrestling and hits harder than a 125-pounder should be able to hit. Darrell’s probably got enough to hang with most of the division’s top-10, but Dodson’s got more than everyone in the division not named Demetrious Johnson or Joseph Benavidez.
How: UD
When: 5:00 of round 3
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 7/10
Winner: Dodson
Why: Because Dodson has the same name as that guy in Jurassic Park who bought off Newman, which caused the entire downfall of Jurassic Park, thus robbing the world of the delight of seeing dinosaurs in a safe, family friendly environment. As a result, I assume all Dodson’s leave a trail of destruction behind them wherever they go. Oh and also because I know Dodson can punch really really hard, and also because much like Nathan, the closest I have come to seeing a Montague fight was in that bad Romeo and Juliet remake with Leo DiCaprio. And since Romeo Montague dies in…oh wait, spoiler alert!….since Romeo Montague dies in Romeo & Juliet I have to assume the same thing happens here. Except it will be a loss, not a death.
Now I see why Nathan had trouble with that movie analogy earlier.
How: 2nd round knockout
When: 2nd round! I just said it! 2:22
Joe Rogan Excitability Scale: 6/10
Final Tally
Nathan and Wyatt pick Cain Velasquez, Quinn chooses JDS
Nathan, Wyatt and Quinn all choose Daniel Cormier
Nathan, Wyatt and Quinn all choose Gilbert Melendez
Nathan and Wyatt pick Gabe Gonzaga, Quinn chooses Shawn Jordan
Nathan, Wyatt and Quinn all choose John Dodson
Once again it’s Quinn against the world!
For more MMA (and hockey) talk, follow Wyatt @thestanchion , Quinn @quinnomori and Nathan @….Nathan doesn’t tweet. Just send him a fax, I believe he just upgraded from a carrier pigeon to a fax machine last week.
